Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years

Será possível prever o futuro quando a China acaba de se tornar a maior economia do mundo??  Ruggiero, Mrs. Ana Lucia (WDC)  to EQUIDAD

PATTERNS OF POTENTIAL HUMAN PROGRESS

Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years - Volume 3 – 2011

The Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies is the home of the International Futures (IFs) computer simulation modeling project.

Website: http://bit.ly/eAtOHd

“……Improving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes—Patterns of Potential Human Progress—that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development. The PPHP series is jointly published by the Pardee Center, Paradigm Publishers, and Oxford University Press India.   The current volume sets out to tell a story of possible futures for the health of peoples across the world.

Questions explored by Improving Global Health include:

·         What health outcomes might we expect given current patterns of human development?

·         What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures?

·         How might improved health futures affect broader economic, social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

 The IFs system of models and its applications are continually evolving. Even so, its foundation continues to rest on two defining characteristics:

1. it is long-range (its forecasting horizon extends to the year 2100), and

2. it encompasses multiple domains of human and social systems for 183 countries (e.g., population, the economy, health, education, energy, agriculture, and aspects of sociopolitical systems) and the interaction effects among them.

Tables in each PPHP volume display dynamic forecasts in all of these domains for major world regions and 183 countries over the next 50 years. 

PATTERNS OF POTENTIAL HUMAN PROGRESS

Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years

VOL UME 3

Content	File Type	Size
PPHP 3: Full Volume	PDF	3,726 kb
Preface and Table of Contents	PDF	142 kb
Chapter 1-Introduction	PDF	181 kb
Chapter 2-Understanding Health	PDF	296 kb
Chapter 3-Forecasting Global Health	PDF	371 kb
Chapter 4-The Current Path as it Seems to be Unfolding	PDF	295 kb
Chapter 5-Analysis of Selected Proximate Risk Factors	PDF	300 kb
Chapter 6-Analysis of Selected Environmental Risk Factors	PDF	375 kb
Chapter 7-Forward Linkages	PDF	319 kb
Chapter 8-Broadening and Integrating our Perspective	PDF	300 kb
Chapter 9-The Future of Global Education	PDF	127 kb
Appendices	PDF	58 kb
Bibliography	PDF	193 kb
Forecast Tables Introduction and Glossary	PDF	92 kb
Maps	PDF	216 kb
Forecast Tables Overview	PDF	55 kb
Forecast Tables	PDF	1,403 kb
Index	PDF	102 kb
Author Notes	PDF	154 kb

Barry B. Hughes, John Evans Professor

Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures

Josef Korbel School of International Studies - University of Denver, Denver, Colorado USA