Overpopulation

Population Statistics: What Should We Make of Them?

Nov 7, 2013 | 1 comment

 

Population Statistics: What Should We Make of Them?

Paul R. Ehrlich

  

Recently the United Nations has published a revised estimate of the size of future human populations, projecting a rise from almost 7.2 billion people now to 9.6 billion around 2050.  How seriously should we take this?  The first context in which we might consider these numbers is that of humanity’s ecological footprint.  Our footprint is the total area of Earth’s land and water ecosystems necessary to produce the resources that humanity consumes, as well as the area required to assimilate the wastes that humanity generates.  Such “ecological footprint analysis” suggests we would need about another half planet Earth to sustain today’s population, with today’s distribution of wealth and technologies, into the long-term future.  Perhaps we should take the revised estimate very seriously.  Furthermore, if you, like me, are not charmed by the prospect of having much of humanity living in misery, as it is now, similar analysis indicates we would need several more planets to keep 7.2 billion people living in comfort more or less permanently./.../