NCD Countdown 2030

NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

• NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators †
• Show footnotes  https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2818%2931992-5

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31992-5

Figure 1Number of deaths in 2016 from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), injuries, and communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions

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Introduction

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of ill health in the world and account for seven of ten worldwide deaths.

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 NCD mortality is higher in low-income and middle-income countries, and, at least in high-income countries, in people with lower socioeconomic status,

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 making NCDs an important obstacle to reducing global and national health inequalities.

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Following the first UN High-Level Meeting on the prevention and control of NCDs in 2011, WHO member states committed to reduce, by 2025, mortality from four NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes; referred to as NCD4 hereafter) in people aged 30–70 years by 25% relative to their rates in 2010 (termed the 25 × 25 target). NCDs are also included in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, to “by 2030 reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being”. The indicator used to measure progress in reducing premature NCD mortality is the same as the 25 × 25 target, and suicide mortality is used as a tracer indicator for mental health.

2018 is an important year for action on NCDs,

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 with the third UN High-Level Meeting on NCDs in September of this year set to review global and national progress, and renew and enhance political commitment towards reducing NCD mortality. Supporting these deliberations and commitments requires data on how NCD mortality is changing in different countries, and on what interventions and policies can reduce their burden. NCD Countdown 2030 is an independent collaboration to inform policies that aim to reduce the worldwide burden of NCDs, and to ensure accountability towards this aim (panel 1). This first report from NCD Countdown 2030 examines the current worldwide status of mortality from NCDs and whether, based on recent trends, each country is expected to reduce mortality in line with SDG target 3.4. We also assess the importance of outcomes and age groups beyond those included in this target and its indicators, and discuss the implications for NCD policies.

Panel 1